| Stock Data Format
A large number of data
entries and evaluation criteria which we consider important in making
carefully reasoned investment decisions are presented in ourweb site data base summaries. All of the information that we compile
is described in the following list. The most important items are
presented when you list or sort the stocks in the three major database
categories. In some cases the information
provided is relatively standard and available from a variety of
sources. A brief description is presented where that is not the case.
All new subscribers receive a detailed description of the more complex
data entries, an indication of how they are derived, and suggestions
as to how they can be applied.
- Company name, exchange on which
stock trades, and stock symbol.
- Earnings per share (EPS) for the
latest reported company fiscal year, generally excluding unusual
items such as capital gains or litigation settlements.
- Consensus of analysts EPS
projections for the current fiscal year.
- Month in which the company's fiscal
year ends.
- Estimated average annual EPS growth
rate (PR GR or PGR) over the next five (5) years.
- EPS for the latest reported 12 month
period.
- Annual dividend per share and the
corresponding percentage return rate based on the price shown.
- Price per share and percentage
change from the last closing price of the prior reporting period
(usually 1 week earlier, but occasionally longer).
- Two values of PE, both based on the
price shown. Current PE using latest 12 month EPS, and nominal PE
(NPE), or a presumed fair value of PE which might be expected under
"normal" market conditions. It is common practice for the
investment community to justify relatively high PE's of many stocks
using projected earnings one or more years in the future. The PE
based on "trailing earnings", or latest 12 month earnings,
thus often exceeds nominal PE by 25%-50% or more.
- PEG, or current PE divided by
projected earnings growth rate. Values of 1.0 or less are desired.
Many investor favorite blue chip stocks tend to sell at PEG values
of 1.5-2.0 or higher. Even for such stocks values in excess of 1.5
should be approached with caution if at all. PEG is an indication of
how much a stock is overpriced according to the classical criterion
that investors should select growth stocks selling at PE's less than
(preferable) or equal to their projected growth rates.
- A number of technical criteria that
are described in some detail in the following list of definitions.
- A brief description of the major
business area in which the company operates.
- Comments on developments of general
interest such as stock splits or dividends, mergers, earnings
surprises, etc.
Most of the items
discussed above are relatively standard, available from many sources,
and most investors are no doubt familiar with them. The items
described below are more unusual, however, in some cases unique to
TradersWeb, and thus a brief description seems appropriate. We
consider all of these functions important in making intelligent
investment decisions having better than average probabilities of
financial success. Our computer rating system takes all of these
factors into account and indicates which stocks look like the best
prospects for purchase at any given time. Thus limiting your
interest to only those stocks rated A+, A, or A- is one simple way
to pick out investment candidates.
- Predicted
Growth Rate (PR GR or PGR): This
is the consensus of analysts projected average annual compounded
earnings growth rate for the next five (5) years. Most growth
companies have PGR's of at least 12%-15%. Most of our listed income
companies have PGR's of at least 3%-4%, some considerably more, to
provide a degree of protection against capital degradation due to a
presumed nominal level of inflation.
- Number of
Years (#YRS): This is the length of time it would take,
assuming price does not change and earnings grow at the projected
rate, for PE to reach the nominal PE value shown. This is a critical
period during which investors who buy stocks with unusually high
PE's must hope that earnings targets are met. Any earnings
disappointment or negative rumor related to these stocks during this
interval is likely to be greeted by a rapid and significant price
drop, as illustrated by many recent examples.
- Accumulation/Distribution
Rating (AD): This rating indicates whether short term
momentum, a function of buying and selling pressures, is up [values
of 1 (best) or 2], down [values of 4 or 5(worst)], or neutral (3).
This is closely related to price trend, although in some cases the
AD rating may differ from the conclusion one might reach from just
looking at a price chart. We advise avoiding new purchases of stocks
which rate poorly according to this criterion and/or appear to be in
a distinct downward price trend.
- Growth
Rating (GR): Evaluation of earnings growth consistency
and persistence, with small best. Values for our listed stocks range
from 1, denoting consistently rising earnings (usually at least 8-10
consecutive up years) to rather erratic, denoted by 3 (several years
when earnings are flat or down somewhat within a mildly upward
overall trend). A value of 2 denotes a somewhat erratic, but
generally upward, pattern. GR can be interpreted as a measure of
earnings predictability, growth quality, or performance probability
for each stock being considered as a potential growth or income
portfolio candidate.
- Consensus
of Investment Analysts (CIA): The degree of analyst
support. The range is 1-9, with 1.0 denoting very strong support,
9.0 denoting a strong sell bias, 5.0 neutral, and values ranging
from 1.0 to 9.0 indicating progressively weaker levels of support.
Stocks with CIA ratings greater than 5.0 should usually be avoided
as new purchases, although in some cases this may present an
opportunity to accumulate them at reasonable prices if they are
otherwise desirable as long term investments. It is seldom timely to
buy stocks when analysts are recommending that they be sold.
- General
Rating (GEN): This is a combined rating based on
recent price and earnings trends, growth consistency, financial
strength, etc., derived from a similar rating presented daily in
Investor's Business Daily
(IBD, PO Box 661750, Los Angeles, CA 90066-8950, $197/yr.). IBD
awards each stock a percentile ranking from 1 to 99 according to how
it compares to all other stocks in their database. We present only
the decile in which their latest ranking occurs--i.e. a 97% rating
is presented as 9 in our database, 63% as 6, etc. Thus our range is
0 to 9, with 9 best. Investors are referred to IBD, an excellent
source of a wide range of news, data and investment analysis, for a
more precise value.
- Relative
Earnings Strength (RES): This criterion indicates the
relative percentile rank of earnings per share performance over the
last year. The range is 0-9, with large values best. Earnings
performance of each stock is compared to that of all others and the
result indicates the percentage decile of those stocks that were
outdone by the particular stock of interest. In other words if
earnings advance (decline) of the stock was superior to that of 73%
of stocks in the universe, that stock rates a 7, etc. Investors
interested in a more precise figure should refer to Investor's
Business Daily where precise figures are presented every
day. Some industries, utilities for example, consistently rank
poorly using this function, which should be taken into account when
using this criterion in making investment decisions.
- Relative
Price Strength (RPS): This criterion indicates the
relative percentile rank of price performance over the last year.
The range is 0-9, with large values best. Price performance of each
stock is compared to that of all others and the result indicates the
percentage decile of those stocks that were outdone by the
particular stock of interest. In other words a stock that did better
than 73% of stocks in the universe receives a 7, etc. Investors
interested in a more precise figure should refer to Investor's
Business Daily where precise figures are presented every
day. Some industries, utilities for example, consistently rank
poorly using this function, which should be taken into account when
using this criterion in making investment decisions.
- Growth
Investment Value (GIV): This is our proprietary estimate
of the total return percent advantage from stock ownership over the
next five (5) years relative to a five (5) year treasury security
(used as a reference due to its presumed safety). The effects of
taxes are disregarded, since they vary widely depending on
individual circumstances. Values of GIV range from minus values,
meaning that T-Bills offer a superior return, to values up to 200%
or more. The total capital return, including dividends and assuming
the stock is sold for a price equal to the projected annual earnings
5 years hence times the nominal PE, is divided by that derived from
treasury security ownership over the same time interval, and the
advantage (disadvantage) expressed as a percentage. Note:
Future estimates will only come to fruition if earnings and dividend
projections are achieved or exceeded and if it is possible to sell
the stock after five years at a price at least consistent with the
nominal PE presented. Such conditions are by no means guaranteed.
- Master
Indicator (MI): MI is a composite indicator derived as a
penalty function from the various criteria discussed above. Weakness
in any of these important evaluation criteria adds to the value of
MI, with significant weakness in each area generally contributing at
least 4-5 points to the cumulative value. The MI range is roughly
0-50, with smaller values best. New purchases of stocks with MI
values above 8-10 should generally be avoided. Values below 5 are
most desirable, although under bullish market conditions such values
may be hard to find. Potential investors are advised to restrict
their interest to stocks that rate well in this category.
- Buy Flags
(BF): Stocks which rate particularly well according to
most evaluation criteria, and not specifically bad as measured by
any of those considered critically important, are flagged to
indicate they merit serious consideration for investment purposes.
Three flags, A-, A, and A+,
denote stocks which rate progressively better according to the
complete set of evaluation criteria used. All of these stocks merit
a careful look according to expectations for future growth obtained
from generally reliable sources of earnings and dividend growth
estimates.
- Avoid
Flags: Stocks which we suggest should be avoided, waiting
for a more appropriate buying opportunity, are denoted
by an X in the flag column.
This X may be due to analysts' sell recommendations, negative
momentum or price trend, low profit potential, insider selling, or a
combination of these factors. Some aggressive investors may
interpret these as sell flags, but that is not our intention. Many
of these stocks may merit a flag in the "A" category
within a few months, since the "X" may simply indicate
that the current price trend is temporarily unsatisfactory.
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detail on the newsletter, its features, and detailed
descriptions of the evaluation tools and stock displays.
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